12/1/2012: Q4 2011 Sovereign Bonds Report

CMA released their Quarterly Global Sovereign Risk Report Q4 2011 which makes for an interesting reading. Here are some highlights:

"The Eurozone debt situation continued throughout Q4, with the region widening 9% overall. A bail out of Dexia at the beginning of the quarter was followed by continued concerns on Italy’s debt in November and risk of an S&P downgrade of the entire Eurozone in December.

"Nearly all global CDS prices widened during November’s volatile period, clearly indicating the significance of Western Europe to the global economy and the importance of finding a permanent resolution to the debt crisis.

• Italy’s austerity measures failed to move the market tighter in Q3, and the spread widened to a high of 595bp in-mid November. This prompted the end of the Bersculoni era, a new president [obviously, they mean PM] and a new set of austerity measures aimed at reducing the 2 trillion dollars of debt and 120% debt-to-GDP ratio. Implied FX devaluation from a default in Italy is around 17% according to CMA DatavisionTM Quantos.
• Spain and Belgium’s charts were a mirror image of Italy’s.
• Ireland remained relatively stable throughout the quarter, perhaps indicating a balance between a well capitalised banking sector and IMF concerns about the prospects for growth in exports to Europe."
• Greece was the worst performer worldwide (see tables below charts), while Portugal outperformed Ireland

Charts:

Summary of 10 highest and lowest risk sovereigns:

 

So despite our 'gains' in the bond markets, Ireland moved into 6th highest risk position in Q4 2011 from 7th in Q3 2011. 

And amongst the safest bond issuers there are just 2 euro zone countries: Finland and Germany (an improvement on Q3 2011 where only Finland was there).

Here's the summary of our performance since Q1 2009.

Economics 9/10/10: Bond market comparatives

Another day, two tables courtesy of CMA ... Greece improves, Ireland... well:
CPD refers to the priced probability of default. 40.83% for Ireland within 5 years on 40% loss at recovery.

Economics 8/10/10: We are not Ireland

I just had to reproduce this statement in full (hat tip to Brian Lucey)... the link to the source is here.

LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou on Monday argued that his country was not suffering the same banking problems as Ireland. Speaking in London he also said that he expected the country's deficit would be 5.5 percentage points lower by the end of the year. "Greece is not Ireland, it doesn't have banking stability problems," he said in a speech.


Well, I'd say Minister Lenihan could have said 'We are not Greece, we don't have a liquidity crisis... yet'... but then he won't be really far from his usual rhetorical corner. For another Reuters story tonight showed that we are heading for a possible liquidity crunch:

"LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - A widening in bid/offer spreads on Irish and Portuguese sovereign bonds this month is possibly an even bigger worry than the rising premium these bonds offer over German Bunds or widening credit default spreads.

Liquidity is the grease in the wheels of financial markets and if there is a reduction in liquidity then this will show up in the way prices move and in bid/offer spreads.

While the bid/offer spread on the Irish 10-year cash bond is not as wide as it was before the European Central Bank said in May it was prepared to buy government bonds in the secondary market, it has definitely broken higher.

Since the ECB's May announcement, the bid/offer spread had largely stayed below 30 basis points. However, it has now widened to 40 basis points.

Ignoring such price action in its early stages can be risky since it could lead to a vicious spiral. This is what happened with Greek debt in March when a widening in bid/offer spreads was ignored, leading to a significant deterioration in the supply/demand dynamics.

Those holding long positions became increasingly keen to dump their holdings while those who might have potentially taken on new long positions refrained for fear of catching the proverbial falling knife.

What has been of concern over the last few sessions is that the widening in bid/offer spreads has also started to shift to the medium- to short-end of the yield curve.

There has even been an acceleration in the widening in the bid/offer spreads for two-year and five-year Irish sovereign debt.

This widening has continued even though the latest data shows the European Central Bank resumed its government bond buying programme after a three-week pause.

That suggests the ECB needs to step up its intervention beyond the 711 million euros it spent last week if it is to meet its aim of ensuring "depth and liquidity in those market segments which are dysfunctional".

Unless there is a marked escalation in the ECB's bond purchases, contagion-related risks suggest the potential for a further widening in Spanish yield spreads against Bunds. Against this backdrop, investors might prefer to focus on the relative value trade of a widening in the 10-year Spain/Italy yield spread."

Ouch!