Showing posts with label growth in euro area. Show all posts
Showing posts with label growth in euro area. Show all posts

Saturday, September 29, 2012

29/9/2012: Eurocoin for September 2012


In the previous post I promised the update for the leading economic indicator, eurocoin, results for September.

In September, eurocoin remained at broadly-speaking the same level as in August, singaling contraction of -0.32 (August reading was -0.33). The indicator was on the positive side in equity markets and sovereign debt components, but came in with deterioration on firms and households surveys side.

This marks twelve consecutive months of sib-zero readings.


3mo MA for the indicator is now at -0.297, 6mo MA is at -0.195 and y/y the swing in the eurocoin is -0.35 points. Current reading is slightly worse than -0.31 average reading for 2008-2009.


Growth forecast based on eurocoin suggests -0.4-0.5% economic contraction in Q3 2012.

Monetary policy is now consistent with accommodative stance:


However, monetary policy remains outside the inflation targeting range:


Economic deterioration continues in y/y terms, while moderating inflation is also on track, suggesting that some further easing in the policy is still feasible in months ahead. My expectation would be for an ECB rate cut in October-November of 25bps.


Monday, September 3, 2012

3/9/2012: Euro Area PMIs for August


I will be blogging on Irish Manufacturing PMI for August 2012 later today (the headline numbers are encouragingly positive, albeit growth rate has slowed down markedly on July), but here's the summary of Euro area PMIs and growth dynamics from Pictet:



The two charts are confirming the dynamics presented here on the foot of eurocoin leading indicator for growth.

Friday, August 31, 2012

31/8/2012: Eurocoin for August 2012


Euro area leading growth indicator from Banca d'Italia and CEPR has posted eleventh consecutive monthly contraction in August, reaching -0.33 from -0.24 in July. This marks the worst reading for eurocoin since July 2009. 2008-2009 average was -0.31, so the current reading is worse than average for the first wave of the crisis.

A year ago, the indicator stood at +0.22, implying a growth swing of 2.1-2.3% annual.

3moMA indicator is now at -0.25, annual expected rate of decline is at -1.3%.

Charts to illustrate: